Reported 7 months ago
Provided by Yuanta Futures, Huang Yanhong summarized the data released on June 13, 2024, at 4:10 PM. The US non-farm employment data was significantly higher than expected, raising concerns about overheating job markets and spiral inflation, leading to a drop in the market's rate cut expectations and a surge in US bond yields. This caused the US Dollar Index to revert to around 105. However, the US CPI for May, released on the 12th, was below expectations with the core CPI hitting a three-year low. This significantly increased market expectations for a 2-point cut in interest rates by the Fed this year, causing stocks and bonds to rise after the data release, with the USD Index falling back to around 104. The Fed's dot plot, released the following day, showed a high probability for only a 1-point rate cut. Fed Chair Powell stated they would wait for more inflation data before cutting rates to ensure no premature rate cuts trigger inflation. The Fed maintains its restrictive rates and the USD and bond yields show signs of stabilization, while bond prices decrease. Although the Fed is unlikely to raise rates, aggressive rate cuts are also not likely. Therefore, the US Dollar is expected to continue range consolidation, and traders should avoid chasing highs or lows when no significant economic data is released.
Source: YAHOO