Reported 5 months ago
The article discusses how the U.S. stock market historically serves as a reliable predictor of the incumbent party's chances of winning a presidential election. The analysis shows that the stock market's year-to-date performance on Election Day is significantly correlated with the party's likelihood of retaining the White House, with a 5.6% gain suggesting a 58.8% chance of re-election for President Biden. This relationship outperforms other prediction markets and economic indicators. The stock market's performance leading up to Election Day will continue to influence these odds.
Source: YAHOO