Reported about 1 year ago
Provided by the Cathay Futures Certificate Trading Advisory Department, Huang Yanhong summarized on July 8, 2024, that the latest US continued jobless claims rose to 1.858 million, the highest since November 2021, with an increase of 206,000 new non-farm jobs released on the 5th, slightly higher than market expectations but revised down for April and May. With data showing a cooling economy and labor market, boosting market expectations of a Fed rate cut, market expectations for at least a 1 basis point rate cut in September have risen to over 75%. The decline in the US dollar and US bond yields is favorable for oil price performance. The EIA inventory report on the 3rd showed unexpected large decreases in crude oil inventory by 12.16 million barrels to 448.5 million barrels, much more than the expected 400,000 barrels reduction, while gasoline inventory decreased by 2.214 million barrels, higher than the expected 1.5 million barrels decrease, with gasoline demand increasing by 120,000 barrels per day to 9.205 million barrels per day, indicating a continued summer oil demand in the US. As the US Independence Day approaches, the AAA expects a record of 60.6 million people driving for the National Day week, higher than last year's 57.8 million. In summary, recent soft economic data in the US has boosted market expectations of a Fed rate cut, with falling US bond yields and the US dollar index being conducive to the movement of commodities. Moreover, despite some progress in the Haifa talks last week, the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah continues to escalate, increasing geopolitical risks. Crude oil prices may continue to rise slowly above the monthly line, supported by high driving demands for travel around the US Independence Day.
Source: YAHOO