Reported 12 months ago
Jensen Kai reporting from Taipei on July 2, 2024, at 4:10 pm, Lyon Securities pointed out that Taiwan Semiconductor still holds a dominant position in Nvidia's supply chain, benefiting from strong ASIC demand, with a speculated fair stock price to reach 600 yuan; Macquarie Securities pinpointed that riding the AI wave with NAND, Unimicron's stock price is expected to reach 808 yuan. These two high-priced stocks, embracing the AI business opportunities, have received reiterated optimism from foreign investments, both rated 'outperforming the market,' signaling a return to a prosperous market outlook. Taiwan Semiconductor previously faced challenges due to worries about lost Blackwell server orders in favor of South Korea's Doosan, but Lyon believes these concerns have been reflected in the share price. Taiwan Semiconductor remains Nvidia's prominent supplier, particularly in the GB200 NVLink switchboard area, where it also gets 20% of compute tray orders as the second supplier. Additionally, Taiwan Semiconductor is set to benefit from Amazon Trainium2 ASIC servers, with main shipments starting in the latter half of this year. Lyon estimates that Taiwan Semiconductor's revenue contribution from AI servers in 2024 and 2025 will be 29% and 33%, respectively, with foreign estimates projecting a staggering year-over-year EPS growth of over 70% to 27.59 yuan in 2024 and further increases to 32.11 yuan and 34.6 yuan in 2025 and 2026. Unimicron, through aggressive R&D investments, has successfully transformed from a low-end consumer NAND supplier to a crucial supplier in industrial, automotive, PC, smartphone, and even server and AI sectors. In the short term, due to rising NAND prices and consistently exceeding 30% in gross profit margin for several quarters, Macquarie is optimistic that Unimicron's strong gross margin performance will continue into all of 2024. Furthermore, with improved product portfolios, the gross profit margin is anticipated to remain above 30% in 2025 and 2026. Foreign financial models for Unimicron indicate that its EPS is expected to double this year compared to the previous year, jumping from 18.6 yuan to 38.4 yuan, with estimates of 50.5 yuan and 61.8 yuan for 2025 and 2026, respectively. For more details, refer to the Commercial Times article on the 2022 tax reforms, the positive impact of 13 bullish signals, and foreign interests in the business world focusing on energy policies, with Liu Deyin advocating proactive deployment of electric power.
Source: YAHOO